Montserrat Koloffon's Bio
Role: Applied research and collaboration.
Nationality: Mexico, but speak fluent Spanish, German, and English. Attended a 12 year German school in Guadalajara, Mexico. Acquired a BS in Political Science from University of Mannheim in Germany and have studied in several other countries, so I'm a bit of an internationalist. I see myself as a world citizen.
My Story and Vision
My story begins in Mexico, where I was born and raised, and also where I was lucky to attend the German School during my entire school years. In that context, I was exposed to two things that became very relevant for the career path I’ve followed; first, having a bi-cultural education since I was a child is probably the earliest source of my interest on international cooperation, and second, growing up in Mexico I became very aware of the huge inequalities and social imbalances, which became my first direct contact with the largest and most difficult unsolved problems of humanity.
At some point during high school, based on knowledge I had acquired about the United Nations, I decided that I wanted to study international relations and build a diplomatic career to be able to set the course of the global agenda together with other State leaders from all around the globe. Even though by then I was already aware of some of the structural challenges the UN faced, I was still convinced that the sphere of international cooperation and negotiation was the best path for me to have a positive impact in the world.
Following that plan, I went to Germany to study political science at the University of Mannheim. During that time, I was fortunate to attend a Summer School at the UN in Bonn, where we learned about how the UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were being adapted into a post-2015 development agenda, what later became the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), also known as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It was an insightful event, where we engaged directly with the people involved in the process, but for some reason, something wasn’t clicking for me.
After that a couple other relevant things happened: first, I finished my BA degree, writing a thesis that let me understand much more in depth the flaws of the UN. Then, after graduating, I focused for a while on classic activism work, launching a student’s initiative for environmental sustainability back in Mexico. There, I noticed that the scale of that impact we were having locally was way too insignificant to solve the problem as a whole. Finally, I attended yet another UN event, this time at the New York headquarters, where it became clear to me how the SDGs had become just a second version of the MDGs, which unfortunately meant one thing: same approach, same failure.
It became very clear to me that my new mission was to find a new type of solution. Not just a new solution, but a new operating paradigm from where to come up with solutions. I found that at Thwink.org, where I finally saw all the most important unsolved problems of humanity coherently approached in a holistic manner, and suggestions for solutions based on Root Cause Analysis.
Now that I’ve found a new paradigm that can work, the next mission is to prove that it does work to the world with some innovative research. If everything works as planned, then by doing so we may end up saving it too!
November 29, 2020 Update
After a six month intership with Thwink.org and lots of quality time working closely with Jack on research and mentoring, I'm in Amsterdam, Netherlands at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, have completed a masters in Political Science: Global Environmental Governance, and have just begun my PhD program under the same advisor.
The masters thesis was on Regime Effectiveness Reconsidered: Achieving the SDGs, as my main research interest continues to be how to effectively achive a global cooperative approach to sustainability, especially through the United Nations. The Abstract is below:
For at least three decades, several different concepts have been analysed as possible explanatory variables of (environmental) regime effectiveness and yet, questions about drivers of effectiveness remain only partially answered. Despite the increased attention granted to this topic by academics and practitioners, the difficulties faced on the analytical level still translate in most cases into unaccomplished goals and thus, continued environmental deterioration. Scholars in this field have pointed out methodological limitations given the complex nature of these issues, however better alternatives remain scarce.
This paper suggests that an important analytical weakness stems from the fact that potential explanatory variables are often investigated separately, failing to account for the effects that arise from their interaction. An analytical framework based in simulation models from the field of system dynamics is presented as a promising approach to account for this analytical gap. This enables a better understanding of the regime’s design components dynamic behaviour and uncovers two important mechanisms to ensure impact effectiveness: throughput legitimacy, and design accountability. The analytical framework is used to assess the regime design of the Sustainable Development Agenda of the United Nations, specifically the Sustainable Development Goals.
A summary of Conclusions follows:
In this work, I have presented system dynamics as an analytical framework to evaluate and improve regime effectiveness. The main contribution shows how valuable insights in the form of high leverage points of the system can be drawn simply from linking the studied variables in a causal loop diagram. This evidence supports the two complementary hypotheses advanced by this study:
H1: Using a linear causality approach, high leverage points for effectiveness are difficult to identify.
H2: Taking an integral approach based on system dynamics, high leverage points are relatively straightforward to identify. In the face of increasing efforts both from academics and practitioners, and continued deterioration of the environment, this methodology offers encouraging possibilities to uncover the dynamics behind regime design and make the changes that will actually help regimes achieve impact effectiveness more efficiently.
The message of this study is an optimistic one: gaining an in depth understanding of the dynamics behind regime effectiveness can be achieved using the analytical framework introduced in this paper. The implications could be significant in face of the urgent need of achieving impact effectiveness as efficiently as possible. Future areas of research obviously revolve around the completion of this analysis through the building of a simulation model. Furthermore, the node of design accountability could turn into an entire line of research in itself, facing the challenge of answering the question of how to best diagnose a problem to ensure that the policy design is tackling its root causes. For the SDGs this probably implies taking much more seriously the synergies across goals, in order to design policy that leads to the achievement of related goals simultaneously.
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Analysis is the breaking down of a problem into smaller easier to solve problems. Exactly how this is done determines the strength of your analysis.
You will see powerful techniques used in this analysis that are missing from what mainstream environmentalism has tried. This explains why a different outcome can be expected.
The key techniques are proper subproblem decomposition and root cause analysis.
The analysis was performed over a seven year period from 2003 to 2010. The results are summarized in the Summary of Analysis Results, the top of which is shown below:
Click on the table for the full table and a high level discussion of analysis results.
This is the solution causal chain present in all problems. Popular approaches to solving the sustainability problem see only what's obvious: the black arrows. This leads to using superficial solutions to push on low leverage points to resolve intermediate causes.
Popular solutions are superficial because they fail to see into the fundamental layer, where the complete causal chain runs to root causes. It's an easy trap to fall into because it intuitively seems that popular solutions like renewable energy and strong regulations should solve the sustainability problem. But they can't, because they don't resolve the root causes.
In the analytical approach, root cause analysis penetrates the fundamental layer to find the well hidden red arrow. Further analysis finds the blue arrow. Fundamental solution elements are then developed to create the green arrow which solves the problem. For more see Causal Chain in the glossary.
First the analysis divided the sustainability problem into four subproblems. Then each subproblem was individually analyzed. For an overview see The Four Subproblems of the Sustainability Problem.
This is no different from what the ancient Romans did. It’s a strategy of divide and conquer. Subproblems like these are several orders of magnitude easier to solve because you are no longer trying (in vain) to solve them simultaneously without realizing it. This strategy has changed millions of other problems from insolvable to solvable, so it should work here too.
For example, multiplying 222 times 222 in your head is for most of us impossible. But doing it on paper, decomposing the problem into nine cases of 2 times 2 and then adding up the results, changes the problem from insolvable to solvable.
Change resistance is the tendency for a system to resist change even when a surprisingly large amount of force is applied.
Overcoming change resistance is the crux of the problem, because if the system is resisting change then none of the other subproblems are solvable. Therefore this subproblem must be solved first. Until it is solved, effort to solve the other three subproblems is largely wasted effort.
The root cause of successful change resistance appears to be effective deception in the political powerplace. Too many voters and politicians are being deceived into thinking sustainability is a low priority and need not be solved now.
The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to raise general ability to detect political deception. We need to inoculate people against deceptive false memes because once people are infected by falsehoods, it’s very hard to change their minds to see the truth.
Life form improper coupling occurs when two social life forms are not working together in harmony.
In the sustainability problem, large for-profit corporations are not cooperating smoothly with people. Instead, too many corporations are dominating political decision making to their own advantage, as shown by their strenuous opposition to solving the environmental sustainability problem.
The root cause appears to be mutually exclusive goals. The goal of the corporate life form is maximization of profits, while the goal of the human life form is optimization of quality of life, for those living and their descendents. These two goals cannot be both achieved in the same system. One side will win and the other side will lose. Guess which side is losing?
The high leverage point for resolving the root cause follows easily. If the root cause is corporations have the wrong goal, then the high leverage point is to reengineer the modern corporation to have the right goal.
Solution model drift occurs when a problem evolves and its solution model doesn’t keep up. The model “drifts” away from what’s needed to keep the problem solved.
The world’s solution model for solving important problems like sustainability, recurring wars, recurring recessions, excessive economic inequality, and institutional poverty has drifted so far it’s unable to solve the problem.
The root cause appears to be low quality of governmental political decisions. Various steps in the decision making process are not working properly, resulting in inability to proactively solve many difficult problems.
This indicates low decision making process maturity. The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to raise the maturity of the political decision making process.
In the environmental proper coupling subproblem the world’s economic system is improperly coupled to the environment. Environmental impact from economic system growth has exceeded the capacity of the environment to recycle that impact.
This subproblem is what the world sees as the problem to solve. The analysis shows that to be a false assumption, however. The change resistance subproblem must be solved first.
The root cause appears to be high transaction costs for managing common property (like the air we breath). This means that presently there is no way to manage common property efficiently enough to do it sustainably.
The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to allow new types of social agents (such as new types of corporations) to appear, in order to radically lower transaction costs.
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There must be a reason popular solutions are not working.
Given the principle that all causal problems arise from their root causes, the reason popular solutions are not working (after over 40 years of millions of people trying) is popular solutions do not resolve root causes.
This is Thwink.org’s most fundamental insight.
Using the results of the analysis as input, 12 solutions elements were developed. Each resolves a specific root cause and thus solves one of the four subproblems, as shown below:
Click on the table for a high level discussion of the solution elements and to learn how you can hit the bullseye.
The solutions you are about to see differ radically from popular solutions, because each resolves a specific root cause for a single subproblem. The right subproblems were found earlier in the analysis step, which decomposed the one big Gordian Knot of a problem into The Four Subproblems of the Sustainability Problem.
Everything changes with a root cause resolution approach. You are no longer firing away at a target you can’t see. Once the analysis builds a model of the problem and finds the root causes and their high leverage points, solutions are developed to push on the leverage points.
Because each solution is aimed at resolving a specific known root cause, you can't miss. You hit the bullseye every time. It's like shooting at a target ten feet away. The bullseye is the root cause. That's why Root Cause Analysis is so fantastically powerful.
The high leverage point for overcoming change resistance is to raise general ability to detect political deception. We have to somehow make people truth literate so they can’t be fooled so easily by deceptive politicians.
This will not be easy. Overcoming change resistance is the crux of the problem and must be solved first, so it takes nine solution elements to solve this subproblem. The first is the key to it all.
In this subproblem the analysis found that two social life forms, large for-profit corporations and people, have conflicting goals. The high leverage point is correctness of goals for artificial life forms. Since the one causing the problem right now is Corporatis profitis, this means we have to reengineer the modern corporation to have the right goal.
Corporations were never designed in a comprehensive manner to serve the people. They evolved. What we have today can be called Corporation 1.0. It serves itself. What we need instead is Corporation 2.0. This life form is designed to serve people rather than itself. Its new role will be that of a trusted servant whose goal is providing the goods and services needed to optimize quality of life for people in a sustainable manner.
Solution element: Corporation 2.0
What’s drifted too far is the decision making model that governments use to decide what to do. It’s incapable of solving the sustainability problem.
The high leverage point is to greatly improve the maturity of the political decision making process. Like Corporation 1.0, the process was never designed. It evolved. It’s thus not quite what we want.
The solution works like this: Imagine what it would be like if politicians were rated on the quality of their decisions. They would start competing to see who could improve quality of life and the common good the most. That would lead to the most pleasant Race to the Top the world has ever seen.
Solution element: Politician Decision Ratings
Presently the world’s economic system is improperly coupled to the environment. The high leverage point is allow new types of social agents to appear to radically reduce the cost of managing the sustainability problem.
This can be done with non-profit stewardship corporations. Each steward would have the goal of sustainably managing some portion of the sustainability problem. Like the way corporations charge prices for their goods and services, stewards would charge fees for ecosystem service use. The income goes to solving the problem.
Corporations gave us the Industrial Revolution. That revolution is incomplete until stewards give us the Sustainability Revolution.
Solution element: Common Property Rights
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This presents our research results, including SIP, analysis of the environmental sustainability problem, and twelve sample solution elements.
This analyzes the world’s standard political system and explains why it’s operating for the benefit of special interests instead of the common good. Several sample solutions are presented to help get you thwinking.
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The Democracy in Crisis Film Series
Introduction to the WorldChange Model, 27 min
Adding Change Resistance to IGMs, 29 min
Part 1. Introduction to Common Property Rights, 15 min
Part 2. The 7 Components of Common Property Rights, 23 min
Truth or Deception, 10 min
The Progressive Paradox Film, 123 min
Introduction to Analytical Activism, 48 min
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One way to get started is The Common Property Rights Project.
This can be done by switching to Root Cause Analysis, which will lead to Environmentalism 2.0.
