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Meet the Thwinkers

The Thwinkers

Philip Bangerter Scott Booher Montserrat Koloffon Jack Harich George Turner

Here’s a little story about
a higher level of thinking.

What Does Thwink Have to Offer? About Contact © 2014 Thwink.org

The Common Property Rights Project - This is where our main effort is today.

  • Paradigm

    Start your reading here:

    Mastering the Science of Striking at the Root

  • Tools
  • Analysis
    Model

    Analysis is the breaking down of a problem into smaller easier to solve problems. Exactly how this is done determines the strength of your analysis.

    You will see powerful techniques used in this analysis that are missing from what mainstream environmentalism has tried. This explains why a different outcome can be expected.

    The key techniques are proper subproblem decomposition and root cause analysis.

    Summary of
    Analysis Results

    The analysis was performed over a seven year period from 2003 to 2010. The results are summarized in the Summary of Analysis Results, the top of which is shown below:

    Summary of Analysis table, top only

    Click on the table for the full table and a high level discussion of analysis results.

      The Universal Causal Chain
    Causal chain

    This is the solution causal chain present in all problems. Popular approaches to solving the sustainability problem see only what's obvious: the black arrows. This leads to using superficial solutions to push on low leverage points to resolve intermediate causes.

    Popular solutions are superficial because they fail to see into the fundamental layer, where the complete causal chain runs to root causes. It's an easy trap to fall into because it intuitively seems that popular solutions like renewable energy and strong regulations should solve the sustainability problem. But they can't, because they don't resolve the root causes.

    In the analytical approach, root cause analysis penetrates the fundamental layer to find the well hidden red arrow. Further analysis finds the blue arrow. Fundamental solution elements are then developed to create the green arrow which solves the problem. For more see Causal Chain in the glossary.

      The 4 Subproblems

    First the analysis divided the sustainability problem into four subproblems. Then each subproblem was individually analyzed. For an overview see The Four Subproblems of the Sustainability Problem.

    Subproblem A Subproblem B Subproblem C Subproblem D
    Multiplication example

    This is no different from what the ancient Romans did. It’s a strategy of divide and conquer. Subproblems like these are several orders of magnitude easier to solve because you are no longer trying (in vain) to solve them simultaneously without realizing it. This strategy has changed millions of other problems from insolvable to solvable, so it should work here too.

    For example, multiplying 222 times 222 in your head is for most of us impossible. But doing it on paper, decomposing the problem into nine cases of 2 times 2 and then adding up the results, changes the problem from insolvable to solvable.

      A. How to Overcome
    Change Resistance
    Subproblem A
    Complete subproblem analysis

    Change resistance is the tendency for a system to resist change even when a surprisingly large amount of force is applied.

    Overcoming change resistance is the crux of the problem, because if the system is resisting change then none of the other subproblems are solvable. Therefore this subproblem must be solved first. Until it is solved, effort to solve the other three subproblems is largely wasted effort.

    The root cause of successful change resistance appears to be effective deception in the political powerplace. Too many voters and politicians are being deceived into thinking sustainability is a low priority and need not be solved now.

    The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to raise general ability to detect political deception. We need to inoculate people against deceptive false memes because once people are infected by falsehoods, it’s very hard to change their minds to see the truth.

      B. How to Achieve Life Form Proper Coupling
    Subproblem B
    Complete subproblem analysis

    Life form improper coupling occurs when two social life forms are not working together in harmony.

    In the sustainability problem, large for-profit corporations are not cooperating smoothly with people. Instead, too many corporations are dominating political decision making to their own advantage, as shown by their strenuous opposition to solving the environmental sustainability problem.

    The root cause appears to be mutually exclusive goals. The goal of the corporate life form is maximization of profits, while the goal of the human life form is optimization of quality of life, for those living and their descendents. These two goals cannot be both achieved in the same system. One side will win and the other side will lose. Guess which side is losing?

    The high leverage point for resolving the root cause follows easily. If the root cause is corporations have the wrong goal, then the high leverage point is to reengineer the modern corporation to have the right goal.

      C. How to Avoid Excessive Solution Model Drift
    Subproblem A
    Complete subproblem analysis

    Solution model drift occurs when a problem evolves and its solution model doesn’t keep up. The model “drifts” away from what’s needed to keep the problem solved.

    The world’s solution model for solving important problems like sustainability, recurring wars, recurring recessions, excessive economic inequality, and institutional poverty has drifted so far it’s unable to solve the problem.

    The root cause appears to be low quality of governmental political decisions. Various steps in the decision making process are not working properly, resulting in inability to proactively solve many difficult problems.

    This indicates low decision making process maturity. The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to raise the maturity of the political decision making process.

      D. How to Achieve Environmental Proper Coupling
    Subproblem A
    Complete subproblem analysis

    In the environmental proper coupling subproblem the world’s economic system is improperly coupled to the environment. Environmental impact from economic system growth has exceeded the capacity of the environment to recycle that impact.

    This subproblem is what the world sees as the problem to solve. The analysis shows that to be a false assumption, however. The change resistance subproblem must be solved first.

    The root cause appears to be high transaction costs for managing common property (like the air we breath). This means that presently there is no way to manage common property efficiently enough to do it sustainably.

    The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to allow new types of social agents (such as new types of corporations) to appear, in order to radically lower transaction costs.

  • Solutions

    There must be a reason popular solutions are not working.

    Given the principle that all causal problems arise from their root causes, the reason popular solutions are not working (after over 40 years of millions of people trying) is popular solutions do not resolve root causes.

    This is Thwink.org’s most fundamental insight.

    Summary of
    Solution Elements

    Using the results of the analysis as input, 12 solutions elements were developed. Each resolves a specific root cause and thus solves one of the four subproblems, as shown below:

    Summary of Analysis

    Click on the table for a high level discussion of the solution elements and to learn how you can hit the bullseye.

      The 4 Subproblems

    The solutions you are about to see differ radically from popular solutions, because each resolves a specific root cause for a single subproblem. The right subproblems were found earlier in the analysis step, which decomposed the one big Gordian Knot of a problem into The Four Subproblems of the Sustainability Problem.

    Subproblem A Subproblem B Subproblem C Subproblem D
    Dartboard

    Everything changes with a root cause resolution approach. You are no longer firing away at a target you can’t see. Once the analysis builds a model of the problem and finds the root causes and their high leverage points, solutions are developed to push on the leverage points.

    Because each solution is aimed at resolving a specific known root cause, you can't miss. You hit the bullseye every time. It's like shooting at a target ten feet away. The bullseye is the root cause. That's why Root Cause Analysis is so fantastically powerful.

      A. How to Overcome
    Change Resistance
    Subproblem A

    Nine Sample Solution Elements

    1. Freedom from Falsehood

    2. The Truth Test

    3. Politician Truth Ratings

    4. Politician Corruption Ratings

    5. No Servant Secrets

    6. Corporation 2.0 Suffix

    7. Servant Responsibility Ratings

    8. Sustainability Index

    9. Quality of Life Index

    The high leverage point for overcoming change resistance is to raise general ability to detect political deception. We have to somehow make people truth literate so they can’t be fooled so easily by deceptive politicians.

    This will not be easy. Overcoming change resistance is the crux of the problem and must be solved first, so it takes nine solution elements to solve this subproblem. The first is the key to it all.

    Four freedoms
      B. How to Achieve Life Form Proper Coupling
    Subproblem A

    In this subproblem the analysis found that two social life forms, large for-profit corporations and people, have conflicting goals. The high leverage point is correctness of goals for artificial life forms. Since the one causing the problem right now is Corporatis profitis, this means we have to reengineer the modern corporation to have the right goal.

    Servant

    Corporations were never designed in a comprehensive manner to serve the people. They evolved. What we have today can be called Corporation 1.0. It serves itself. What we need instead is Corporation 2.0. This life form is designed to serve people rather than itself. Its new role will be that of a trusted servant whose goal is providing the goods and services needed to optimize quality of life for people in a sustainable manner.

    Solution element: Corporation 2.0

      C. How to Avoid Excessive Solution Model Drift
    Subproblem A

    What’s drifted too far is the decision making model that governments use to decide what to do. It’s incapable of solving the sustainability problem.

    Portion of diagram of Politician Decision Ratings

    The high leverage point is to greatly improve the maturity of the political decision making process. Like Corporation 1.0, the process was never designed. It evolved. It’s thus not quite what we want.

    The solution works like this: Imagine what it would be like if politicians were rated on the quality of their decisions. They would start competing to see who could improve quality of life and the common good the most. That would lead to the most pleasant Race to the Top the world has ever seen.

    Solution element: Politician Decision Ratings

      D. How to Achieve Environmental Proper Coupling
    Subproblem A

    Presently the world’s economic system is improperly coupled to the environment. The high leverage point is allow new types of social agents to appear to radically reduce the cost of managing the sustainability problem.

    Diagram of Industrial and Sustainability Revolutions

    This can be done with non-profit stewardship corporations. Each steward would have the goal of sustainably managing some portion of the sustainability problem. Like the way corporations charge prices for their goods and services, stewards would charge fees for ecosystem service use. The income goes to solving the problem.

    Corporations gave us the Industrial Revolution. That revolution is incomplete until stewards give us the Sustainability Revolution.

    Solution element: Common Property Rights

  • Publications
    Books
    All Books

    Cutting Through Complexity: The Engineer’s Guide to Solving Difficult Social Problems with Root Cause Analysis

    This presents our research results, including SIP, analysis of the environmental sustainability problem, and twelve sample solution elements.

    The Dueling Loops of the Political Powerplace: Why Progressives Are Stymied and How They Can Find Their Way Again

    This analyzes the world’s standard political system and explains why it’s operating for the benefit of special interests instead of the common good. Several sample solutions are presented to help get you thwinking.

    Papers
    All Papers

    Change Resistance as the Crux (journal paper)

    Solving Problems with Root Cause Analysis (journal paper)

    Democratic Backsliding (working paper)

    Pamphlets
    All Pamphlets

    Striking at the Root with Common Property Rights

    Articles
    All Articles

    Preventing the Death of Democracy

    The Trump Phenomenon

    The Powell Memo

    What Is an Analytical Approach?

    Booklets
    All Booklets

    Root Cause Analysis: How It Works at Thwink.org

    Bridging the Sustainability Gap with Common Property Rights

  • Videos
    The Dueling Loops Video Series
    Introduction

    It's best to start with the first one and watch them all in sequence.

    1. Overview of the Dueling Loops, 11 min

    Part 1. Basic Concepts of Systems Thinking and the Problem

    2. Discovery of the Sustainability Problem by LTG Project, 6 min

    3. The Basic Concept of Feedback Loops, with Pop Growth, 9 min

    4. How Simulation Models Work, with Pop Growth, 10 min

    5. The Importance of Structural Thinking, 3 types, 8 min

    Part 2. Deriving the Dueling Loops Shape from Past System Behavior

    6. What Jared Diamond’s Collapse Book Attempted to Do, 6 min

    7. Extracting the Competitive Spiral from Collapse, 8 min

    8. The Two Fundamental Loops of All Political Systems, 5 min

    9. The Four Loop Model of Why Some Societies Collapsed, 7 min

    10. The Basic Dueling Loops Shape, 15 min

    Part 3. How the Basic Dueling Loops Simulation Model Works

    11. The Race to the Bottom Simulation Model, 6 min

    12. The Five Main Types of Political Deception, 18 min

    Other Videos
     

    The Democracy in Crisis Film Series

    Introduction to the WorldChange Model, 27 min

    Adding Change Resistance to IGMs, 29 min

    Part 1. Introduction to Common Property Rights, 15 min

    Part 2. The 7 Components of Common Property Rights, 23 min

    Truth or Deception, 10 min

    The Progressive Paradox Film, 123 min

    Introduction to Analytical Activism, 48 min

    Car

  • Glossary
    Glossary of key concepts
     
    Note how generic most of the tools/concepts are. They apply to far more than the sustainability problem. Thus the glossary is really The Problem Solver's Guide to Difficult Social System Problems, using the sustainability problem as a running example.
    Fragonard The Reader

    Abstraction

    Agent Based Modeling

    Analysis

    Analytical Activism

    Analytical Approach

    Analytical Method

    Best Practice

    Broken Political System Problem

    Causal Chain

    Causal Loop Diagram

    Change Resistance

    Classic Activism

    Competition

    Competitive Advantage

    Competitive Exclusion Principle

    Complex Social System

    Cooperation

    Cycle of Acceptance

    DISMALL Problems

    Dueling Loops

    Economic Sustainability

    Emergent Behavior

    Environmental Sustainability

    Environmentalism 2.0

    Event Oriented Thinking

    Experiment

    Feedback Loop

    Fundamental Attribution Error

    Fundamental Solution

    Hypothesis

    Intermediate Cause

    Intuitive Process Trap

    Kuhn Cycle

     

    Law of Root Causes

    Laws of Root Cause Analysis

    Leverage Point

    Malthusian Trap

    MECE Issue Trees

    Meme

    Model

    Model Based Analysis

    Model Crisis

    Model Drift

    Model Revolution

    More of the Truth

    New Dominant Life Form

    Normal Science

    Paradigm Change

    Prescience

    Principle of Cumulative Adv.

    Process

    Process Driven Problem Solving

    Proper Coupling

    Root Cause

    Root Cause Analysis

    Scientific Method

    Social Agent

    Social Force Diagrams

    Social Sustainability

    Structure

    Superficial Solution

    Sustainability

    System Dynamics

    Systemic

    System Improvement Process

    Systems Thinking

    Three Pillars of Sustainability

     

    Young man reading by candlelight

    The glossary is the foundation for the entire website. It defines the conceptual framework required to "move toward higher levels" of thinking.

  • General
    Getting to Know Thwink.org
     

    About

    Contact

    News

    Meet the Thwinkers

    What Does Thwink Have to Offer?

     

    Projects
     

    Democratic Backsliding (active)

    Politician Truth Ratings (inactive)

    Atlanta Analytical Activists (inactive)

    Miscellaneous
     

    The Forum (inactive)

    The World of Simulation

  • The Goal

    About Thwink.org

    One way to get started is The Common Property Rights Project.

    This can be done by switching to Root Cause Analysis, which will lead to Environmentalism 2.0.