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Journal Papers

2026 - Democracy’s eternal vulnerability: Increasing resilience to disinformation by raising the two components of political truth literacy

This paper PDF was published in Social Sciences & Humanities Open on January 18, 2026.

Using root cause analysis, the paper analyzes the largest high-impact problem of our time: democratic backsliding, as starkly seen in the authoritarian takeover underway in the United States under Donald Trump, the rise of far-right parties in strong European Union democracies, and the rise of authoritarian leaders in numerous democracies. The key finding is the main root cause of the problem is low political truth literacy. The paper test this finding with a controlled experiment and concludes the main root cause exists and can be resolved with practical, relatively low cost solutions.

This is a major research report, with five supplementary materials files:

1. Study results data spreadsheet - With raw answers, correct answers, and all data analysis.

2. Questionnaire description - This is extensive and runs 46 pages.

3. Simulation model description - This is extensive and describes model structure and the simulation runs.

4. Vensim simulation model - For those who wish to examine the construction and behavior of the Dueling Loops of the Political Powerplace simulation model.

5. Method of analysis description - This describes the root cause analysis method used.

Here's the abstract:

The vulnerability of democratic systems to political disinformation has become a defining challenge of contemporary governance. Despite considerable attention, theoretical understanding remains undeveloped and solution failure continues. To fill this gap the article develops a starting-point comprehensive theory of resilience to disinformation in democratic systems. Analysis suggests the main root cause of vulnerability to disinformation is low political truth literacy, whose cognitive components are logical truth quotient (LTQ) and appropriate action quotient (AAQ). Both are presently low. Simulation modeling shows that raising them to medium causes the winning political strategy to shift from disinformation to truth-telling. In this state extreme polarization is eliminated, bipartisan consensus becomes the norm, and resilience is achieved. The theory is supported with a proof-of-concept experimental study testing a novel intervention specifically designed to raise LTQ and AAQ. Multiple coordinated solution elements will be required for full resilience.

And here's the summary of analysis:

Summary of Analysis diagram

 

 

2015 - Solving "Locked into a System" Problems with Root Cause Analysis

This invited paper PDF was published in the Spanda Journal in a special issue on "Systemic Change" in June 2015.

Presently civilization finds itself “locked into a system” and unable to solve difficult large-scale social problems like over-population, environmental sustainability, recurring wars, and excessive concentration of wealth. Problem solvers, whether they are in NGOs, academia, or government, are unable to reliably effect systemic change on problems of this class. Why is this?

We know from Newton’s third law that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Every effect has a cause and every cause has an effect. From this arises the Law of Root Causes: All problems arise from their root causes. Therefore the reason problem solvers are unable to solve problems of this class is that popular solutions do not resolve root causes. They instead attempt to resolve intuitively attractive intermediate causes, which guarantees solution failure. Unless the laws of physics change there can be no other explanation.

To rectify this situation a comprehensive standard approach to solving problems of this class is proposed. This consists of three tools borrowed from the business world: root cause analysis, process driven problem solving, and model based analysis. The article presents the principles behind the tools and the tools themselves, followed by a sample application of the tools to the most pressing problem of our time: the environmental sustainability problem.

 

 

2010 - Change Resistance as the Crux of the Environmental Sustainability Problem

This paper PDF was published in the System Dynamics Review in January 2010.

The paper attempts to explain why conventional approaches to solving the sustainability problem aren't working. The conventional approach is Classic Activism. The paper describes how the problem solving process of Classic Activism works, where its fatal flaws are, and how that could be easily fixed. How? By switching to Root Cause Analysis.

Why, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem? Decomposing the problem into two sequential subproblems, (1) How to overcome change resistance and (2) How to achieve proper coupling, opens up a fresh line of attack.

A simulation model shows that in problems of this type the social forces favoring resistance will adapt to the forces favoring change. If change resistance is high this adaptation response either prevents proper coupling from ever being achieved or delays it for a long time. From this we conclude that systemic change resistance is the crux of the problem and must be solved first. An example of how this might be done is presented.

 

 

Conference Papers

2021 - Adding a change resistance layer to integrated system models using root cause analysis and problem decomposition

This paper PDF was presented at the System Dynamics conference in Chicago, USA on July 26-308, 2021. The paper applies Thwink.org's expertise on systemic change resistance, root cause analysis, and system dynamics modeling to the question of "why has a long series of increasingly sophisticated integrated system models (ISMs)" failed?

Inspired by the iconic World2 and World3 system dynamics models, why has a long series of increasingly sophisticated integrated system models (ISMs), such as Threshold21, DICE,
and iSDG, largely failed to lead to successful solution of the environmental sustainability problem? The paper proposes the main reason is these models suffer from a boundary problem, by
excluding the critical component of political system change resistance. To begin the conversation for filling this gap, the paper presents a submodel to demonstrate how a change resistance layer can be added to an ISM, using World3 as an example. Scenario policy changes now go through the layer, which provides the necessary resistance. The use of root cause analysis and problem decomposition to create an effective layer is described.

 

 

2019 - Process-driven Problem Solving with Root Cause Analysis: Adapting powerful business tools to fit the sustainability problem

This paper PDF was prepared for the Earth System Governance conference in Oaxaca, Mexico on November 6 to 8, 2019 and presented by Montserrat Koloffon. The paper reports on Thwink's research in general, including the Truth Literacy Training study, which has favorable results. The report closes with a proposal to add a sixth research lens, Problem Solving Processes.

Two of the most powerful problem-solving tools in the business world are process-driven problem solving and root cause analysis. These tools are routinely used to solve difficult problems of any type, with a track record of astounding success. However, there’s a catch. The tools have only been applied to business and technical problems. They have never been applied to social problems, such as sustainability.

This paper serves as a progress report on the research results of Thwink.org, which has been attempting since 2001 to adapt these tools to fit social problems. The result is the System Improvement Process (SIP), a generic process designed from scratch to solve difficult large-scale social problems of any type.

(The remander of this long abstract is omitted.)

 

 

2012 - Solving the Sustainability Problem with Root Cause Analysis

This paper PDF is jargon free and an easy read. Scott Durlacher presented the paper at the Ecosystem Services Partnership Conference in Portland, Oregon, US on August 1, 2012.

Countless solutions to the sustainability problem have been tried over the last forty years. While there have been some small successes, the overall problem remains unsolved. The global ecological footprint is at 50% overshoot and rising, with no credible solution in sight. Why is this?

Because popular solutions do not resolve root causes. Root cause analysis has worked spectacularly well for business problems. So why can’t it work for public interest problems?

All problems arise from their root causes. For example, consider the autocratic ruler problem. The root cause of despicable autocratic rulers like kings, warlords, and dictators was that there was no easy way for an oppressed population to replace a bad ruler with a good one. Democracy resolved the root cause with addition of the voter feedback loop. If you’ve spent decades trying to solve a problem and have failed, then the only possible reason is failure to resolve root causes.

This paper presents the results of a seven year root cause analysis of the complete sustainability problem.

(The remander of this long abstract is omitted.)

 

 

Unpublished papers for reference

2024 - (Rejected) Applying root cause analysis to determine the most effective media literacy strategy for preventing susceptibility to political misinformation

This paper (the preprint is here) was submitted to the Journal of Media Literacy Education on February 28, 2024. It was rejected after two revisions.

The impact of political misinformation on democratic systems has grown increasingly detrimental. Interventions have proven largely ineffective. This article makes three innovative contributions to create a comprehensive theory and media literacy strategy for preventing susceptibility to political misinformation. First, it applies root cause analysis to find the problem’s main root cause: low political truth literacy. Second, it constructs a simulation model to identify the feedback loop structure of the problem and the two components of the main root cause: logical truth quotient and appropriate action quotient. Both are presently low and must be raised to at least medium to prevent voter susceptibility to political misinformation. Third, an experiment is used to measure root cause presence and demonstrate the potential of raising both components in a cost-efficient manner. Multiple solution elements will be required for efficient full root cause resolution.

 

 

Thwink Website Papers

2005 - The Dueling Loops of the Political Powerplace

This paper PDF was written in a paper style format due to its use of a simulation model. It was never met to be published in a peer reviewed journal. Instead, it was designed to be easily read by the non-specialist.

Over the years this has been the most influential single publication on the entire website, by far. The paper, using a simple simulation model that most readers can follow, lifts the veil on how the world's democratic political systems really work. They don't. They are too easily exploited by powerful special interests, notably large for-profit corporations. How do they do it? Why do the exploiters have an inherent advantage that those working for the common good have been unable to counter? What can be done to solve this rather important problem? How does the Dueling Loops model explain the left/right political spectrum, the one that appears in all democracies?

The answers are all there in the paper.

Most effort on solving the sustainability problem focuses on its technical side: the proper practices that must be followed to be sustainable. But surprisingly little effort addresses why most of society is so strenuously resisting adopting those practices, which is the change resistance or social side of the problem.

This paper presents a root cause analysis of the change resistance part of the problem using a simulation model. The model shows the main source of change resistance lies in a fundamental structure called The Dueling Loops of the Political Powerplace. This consists of a race to the bottom among politicians battling against a race to the top. Due to the inherent (and well hidden) advantage of the race to the bottom, it is the dominant loop most of the time, as it is now. As long as it remains dominant, resistance to solving sustainability problems will remain so high they are insolvable.

The analysis has, however, uncovered a tantalizing nugget of good news. There is a promising high leverage point in this structure that has never been tried. If problem solvers could unite and push there with the proper solutions, it appears the change resistance side of the problem would be solved in short order and the Sustainability Revolution would begin.