Adding Change Resistance to Integrated Global Models


Thwink.org has prepared a video on how a change resistance subsystem can be added to highly influential integrated models like Climate Interactive's C-ROADS and the Limits to Growth's WORLD3.

The video shows how The Dueling Loops of the Political Powerplace simulation models works. Here's the 2005 paper on that model. Please remember the Dueling Loops model is only an example. It's not a definitive analysis.

The key diagram in the video is shown below.

Diagram of adding change resistance to integrated world models

Integrated models like C-ROADS and WORLD3 are essentially IPAT equation models. They model that part of the problem well. But they assume a solution has been implemented. Thus these models exclude how the Political System, due to change resistance, can reject or greatly weaken Promoted Solutions, as shown in the lower right diagram. That can be corrected by adding a Change Resistance Subsystem as shown.

The diagram is simplified. As the Change Resistance Subsystem becomes more sophisticated, there will be interactions with the IPAT Integrated Global Model. These arrows are not shown.

Thwink.org has done an extensive root cause analysis on the global environmental sustainability problem as a whole, using the System Improvement Process. The one big problem was decomposed into four subproblems, one of which is change resistance. For a summary of the analysis, please see Summary of Analysis Results.

Root Cause Analysis at Thwink.org

The graph tells a grim story.

Despite the best efforts of millions of dedicated activists, the world's ecological footprint keeps rising. Year after year, decade after decade, it just keeps going up. Every dot on the graph is a major effort to solve the problem. There are thousands of more dots not on the graph. But none have made more than a modest difference. The footprint is now at about 50% overshoot. If this overshoot is not brought down below the one planet limit very soon, collapse is dead ahead. (pun intended)

So what are the world's problem solvers doing wrong? Why are popular solutions failing to solve the sustainability problem?

Because popular solutions are incapable of resolving the root causes.

If you believe this answer is reasonably true or might be true, then Thwink.org has a world of helpful material for you and your organization. Here's how you can get started:

If you are a visual thinker, read this article on A Little Story About Corporate Dominance and the Occupy Movement.

If you are an analytical thinker, study this paper on Solving the Sustainability Problem with Root Cause Analysis.

If you are a sharp thinker but not that analytical, try this essay on Mastering the Science of Striking at the Root.

Now, after you've read one of the above items, consider one of the very latest solutions. See the About Us page for Al Gore's Climate Reality Project. The page says:

The Climate Reality Project, founded and chaired by former Vice President and Nobel Laureate Al Gore, is dedicated to unleashing a global cultural movement demanding action on the climate crisis. Despite overwhelming international scientific consensus on climate change, the global community still lacks the resolve to implement meaningful solutions. The Climate Reality Project exists to forge an unwavering bedrock of impassioned support necessary for urgent action. With that foundation, together we will ignite the moral courage in our leaders to solve the climate crisis.

The Climate Reality Project employs cutting-edge communications and grassroots engagement tools to break the dam of inaction and raise the profile of the climate crisis to its proper state of urgency. With a global movement more than 5 million strong and a grassroots network of Climate Leaders trained by Chairman Al Gore, we stand up to denial, press for solutions, and spread the truth about climate change to empower our leaders to solve the climate crisis.

If you've grasped what our material says, you will immediately be able to see that the Climate Reality Project's approach is simply not going to work. It's basically a "spread the truth" approach. This is no different from past approaches, all of which have failed. Why? Because "spread the truth" pushes on a low leverage point. It attempts to resolve an intermediate cause (the universal fallacious paradigm of Growth Is Good) rather than the root cause (high political deception effectiveness) of change resistance.

You don't believe this? Then read the Wikipedia entry on Sharon Beder's Global Spin: The Corporate Assault on Environmentalism. Be sure to read the link to the Global Spin Review, which explains how corporate spin works.

Spin is deception. It's working like a charm, so well that attempts to "spread the truth" have not worked in the past. Nor will they work in the future.

That "the global community still lacks the resolve to implement meaningful solutions" is a symptom of change resistance. Al Gore's project is trying to overcome change resistance. Wouldn't it help if the project promoted solutions that were directed toward resolving the root cause of change resistance? After all, all problems arise from their root causes.

If this makes sense, then see the glossary entry on More of the Truth. That's the solution strategy The Climate Reality Project is using.

Welcome to a whole new way of thwinking !

Imagine routinely solving whatever portion of the sustainability problem you're working on.

Scott Durlacher presenting paper at Portland conference

Scott Durlacher presented the paper at the Ecosystem Services Partnership Conference in Portland, Oregon, US, on August 1, 2012. Click on the photo to watch the five minute video of Scott covering the highlights of the paper and its context.

How? With the same powerful tool business uses to routinely solve its toughest problems: Root Cause Analysis.

Thwink.org has distilled its central message into one paper: Solving the Sustainability Problem with Root Cause Analysis. PDF The paper is jargon free and an easy read since its target audience is all serious environmentalists.

The key conclusion is that popular solutions don't work because they do not resolve root causes. Instead, they attempt (in vain) to resolve intermediate causes, like externalized costs or the universal fallacy that Growth Is Good.

The analysis found four main root causes. Finding these led to discovery that the environmental sustainability problem is itself a symptom of a deeper problem: the Broken Political System Problem. This is the real problem to solve. Until it's solved the work of environmentalists is largely fruitless. This is a highly controversial and counter-intuitive conclusion, but it's well supported by a mountain of analysis, modeling, references, and examples in the publications at Thwink.org.

Archery target

Using the results of the analysis a solution strategy is presented. Twelve solution elements are required to resolve the four root causes.

Because each solution is aimed at resolving a specific known root cause, you can't miss. You hit the bullseye every time. It's like shooting at a target ten feet away. The bullseye is the root cause. That's why Root Cause Analysis is so fantastically powerful.

If you know where the bullseye is, your solutions can't miss! It's that simple.

If this makes sense then:

Welcome to Modern Activism

1. Ready - Define the problem.

2. Aim - Analyze the problem with Root Cause Analysis.

3. Fire - Develop and implement solutions that can't miss.

 

These three steps are why we designed this button:

Root cause buttons

Solving the sustainability problem is not a matter of doing the same things better. It's a matter of doing something different. Radically different.

What's the real story? What does Thwink.org have to offer? More