All Papers

Journal Papers

2010 - Change Resistance as the Crux of the Environmental Sustainability Problem

This paper was published in the System Dynamics Review in January 2010. It has served as a bit of bombshell dropped into the placid waters of environmentalism, because it convincingly explains why conventional approaches aren't working. The conventional approach is Classic Activism. The paper describes how the problem solving process of Classic Activism works, where its fatal flaws are, and how that could be easily fixed. How? By switching to Root Cause Analysis.

Here's the abstract:

Why, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem? Decomposing the problem into two sequential subproblems, (1) How to overcome change resistance and (2) How to achieve proper coupling, opens up a fresh line of attack.

A simulation model shows that in problems of this type the social forces favoring resistance will adapt to the forces favoring change. If change resistance is high this adaptation response either prevents proper coupling from ever being achieved or delays it for a long time. From this we conclude that systemic change resistance is the crux of the problem and must be solved first. An example of how this might be done is presented.

 

Conference Papers

2013 - Part 1: Does “Implementing Solutions for Sustainability” put the cart before the horse?

This paper is not yet written. It will be presented at at the US Society for Ecological Economics Conference, Burlington, Vermont, US, June 9 to 12, 2013. Here's the abstract:

The theme of USSEE’s 2013 conference is “Building Local, Scaling Global: Implementing Solutions for Sustainability.” This paper argues that this theme, while laudable, is premature because conventional solutions are not based on root cause analysis (RCA). Conventional solutions are in fact based on approaches like modeling of direct causes, incremental improvement, comparative analysis, and expert opinion. These approaches appear incapable of solving the sustainability problem, as demonstrated by the seemingly unstoppable rise of the world’s ecological footprint, now at 50% overshoot. Why is this? Because focusing on solutions before root causes are known puts the cart before the horse.

This paper discusses what RCA is, how RCA is used to extraordinary success in business, and how RCA could be applied to the sustainability problem. The central challenge is developing a suitable “wrapper” process for RCA. A wrapper packages something to make it transportable, cohesive, and useful. Business has long used RCA wrappers like Six Sigma and Kaizen. But even though ecological economics “was born as a problem-based approach to socio-ecological concerns,” it has no RCA wrapper that would allow RCA to be applied to the sustainability problem and thus serve as an effective foundation of “a problem-based approach.”

To fill this gap and serve as an example of what’s possible, Thwink.org has developed a wrapper for RCA called the System Improvement Process (SIP). SIP was iteratively developed and applied over a seven year period. Four main root causes were found, along with twelve proposed solution elements for resolving the root causes. Analysis results contain a high degree of novelty since it appears these root causes have never been explicitly identified before, which means the process has led to discovery of an entire class of solutions that have never been tried.

(This paper is part 1 of 3 in a series by Thwink.org.)

 

2013 - Part 2: Finding true north at the EPA with root cause analysis

This paper PDF is intended primarily for the Office of R&D at the U.S. EPA. It will be presented at at the US Society for Ecological Economics Conference, Burlington, Vermont, US, June 9 to 12, 2013. Here's the abstract:

In 2010 the U.S. EPA underwent a fundamental change in mission by “recognition that the goal of sustainability is our ‘true north.’ ” Subsequently in 2011, at the EPA’s request, the National Research Council completed a study known as the “Green Book.” Its purpose was to “provide an operational framework for integrating sustainability as one of the key drivers within the regulatory responsibilities of EPA.” The book describes the framework and rec-ommends that the “EPA should adopt or adapt the comprehensive Sustainability Framework proposed in Figure S-1.”

This paper analyzes the Sustainability Framework and concludes that as presently de-signed it is not capable of achieving its stated goal. The steps and tools described in the Green Book are for solution “assessment and management.” Assessment is inspection, so this is an inspection driven process. It will tend to drive research toward the same class of popular solutions that for over forty years has failed to solve the sustainability problem be-cause as the part 1 paper explains, popular solutions do not resolve root causes. Further-more, as this paper explains, you cannot inspect quality in. You can only build it into the product in the first place.

To fix these flaws and allow the EPA to “adapt” the Green Book framework so that it has a high probability of success, this paper presents the Quality Driven Framework.

 

2013 - Part 3: Thriving (and not just surviving) in the Anthropocene with Common Property Rights

This paper is not yet written. It will be presented at at the US Society for Ecological Economics Conference, Burlington, Vermont, US, June 9 to 12, 2013. Here's the abstract:

The Geological Society of America titled its 2011 conference: “Archean to Anthropocene: The past is the key to the future.” The Anthropocene began in earnest with the Industrial Revolution, so if we can understand what triggered that system mode change then perhaps we can proactively trigger the next one: the Sustainability Revolution.

This paper proposes that the key precondition for the Industrial Revolution was a sufficiently mature private property rights (PPR) system. The PPR system contains seven main components including for-profit corporations, prices, and expenses. PPR allowed the Industrial Revolution to sweep the world and has proven itself to be the most efficient system known for management of private property.

The environmental sustainability problem can be seen as a case of inefficient management of the world’s common property. So what might happen if we exploited the very strong analogy between private and common property management, created the mirror image of PPR, populated it with non-profit stewardship corporations instead of for-profit corporations, and called it Common Property Rights (CPR)? If the past is the key to the future, then CPR will do for common property what PPR has done for private property and trigger the Sustainability Revolution.

The paper presents the analysis leading to these conclusions along with how PPR and CPR could work analogously, how an inevitable side effect of a strong PPR system is environmental unsustainability, and finally how CPR can eliminate that side effect because CPR properly couples the human economy to the greater system it lives within, the environment. This proper coupling is the long term goal of ecological economics. CPR can achieve this goal quickly, reliably, and efficiently because it resolves the main root cause of economic improper coupling, as identified by the root cause analysis described in the part 1 paper.

(This paper is part 3 of 3 in a series by Thwink.org.)

 

2012 - Solving the Sustainability Problem with Root Cause Analysis

This paper. PDF is jargon free and an easy read since its target audience is all serious environmentalists. Scott Durlacher presented the paper at the Ecosystem Services Partnership Conference in Portland, Oregon, US on August 1, 2012.

Here's the abstract:

Countless solutions to the sustainability problem have been tried over the last forty years. While there have been some small successes, the overall problem remains unsolved. The global ecological footprint is at 50% overshoot and rising, with no credible solution in sight. Why is this?

Because popular solutions do not resolve root causes. Root cause analysis has worked spectacularly well for business problems. So why can’t it work for public interest problems?

All problems arise from their root causes. For example, consider the autocratic ruler problem. The root cause of despicable autocratic rulers like kings, warlords, and dictators was that there was no easy way for an oppressed population to replace a bad ruler with a good one. Democracy resolved the root cause with addition of the voter feedback loop. If you’ve spent decades trying to solve a problem and have failed, then the only possible reason is failure to resolve root causes.

This paper presents the results of a seven year root cause analysis of the complete sustainability problem. A formal problem solving process was developed specifically for this problem. Process execution identified four main subproblems. This is critical. The right decomposition can change a problem from insolvable to solvable, because you’re no longer trying to solve multiple subproblems simultaneously without realizing it.

For each subproblem the analysis found a main root cause, a high leverage point for resolving the root cause, and one or more solution elements for pushing on the high leverage point.

The key solution element is Common Property Rights. This is a systemic approach to sustainable management of ecosystem services in a generic, efficient, self-replicating manner. Common Property Rights are the mirror image of Private Property Rights, so they promise to be just as generic, efficient, and self-replicating.

 

Thwink Papers

2005 - The Dueling Loops of the Political Powerplace

This paper was written in a paper style format due to its use of a simulation model. It was never met to be published in a peer reviewed journal. Instead, it was designed to be easily read by the non-specialist.

Over the years this has been the most influential single publication on the entire website, by far. The paper, using a simple simulation model that most readers can follow, lifts the veil on how the world's democratic political systems really work. They don't. They are too easily exploited by powerful special interests, notably large for-profit corporations. How do they do it? Why do the exploiters have an inherent advantage that those working for the common good have been unable to counter? What can be done to solve this rather important problem? How does the Dueling Loops model explain the left/right political spectrum, the one that appears in all democracies?

The answers are all there in the paper.

Here's the abstract:

Most effort on solving the sustainability problem focuses on its technical side: the proper practices that must be followed to be sustainable. But surprisingly little effort addresses why most of society is so strenuously resisting adopting those practices, which is the change resistance or social side.

This paper presents an analysis of the social side of the problem using a simulation model. The model shows the main source of change resistance is a fundamental structure called the dueling loops of the political powerplace. This consists of a race to the bottom among politicians battling against a race to the top. Due to the inherent structural advantage of the race to the bottom it is the dominant loop most of the time, as it is now. As long as it remains dominant, resistance to living sustainably will remain high.

The analysis has, however, uncovered a tantalizing nugget of good news. There is a promising high leverage point in this structure that has never been tried. If problem solvers could unite and push there with the proper solution elements, it appears the social side of the problem would be solved in short order, and civilization could at last enter the Age of Transition to Sustainability.

 

Journal Papers in Progress

2013 - Finding the Fundamental Forces of the Sustainability Problem with Root Cause Analysis

This paper PDF is the best overall introduction to Thwink.org's research results. The paper is currently undergoing review by other researchers. After that it wil be submitted to Global Environmental Change.

Here's the abstract:

The conceptual research question here is: What is it science doesn’t understand that is preventing solution of the sustainability problem? This paper argues the answer is the fundamental forces causing unsustainable and sustainable system modes. Until these forces are understood and solutions are based on that understanding, the sustainability problem will remain unsolved.

In order to understand these forces this paper presents the System Improvement Process (SIP). SIP is a tool for scientists. SIP allows the powerful business tool of Root Cause Analysis to be applied to large-scale social problems like sustainability. By using SIP to systematically construct a model of the root cause forces keeping the world locked in an unsustainable mode, analysts will be able to engineer the fundamental solution forces for breaking mode lock-in and shifting the system to a sustainable mode.

The paper presents a universal model of how the fundamental forces of social problems work, how SIP works, and what analysis of the sustainability problem using SIP found. An important conclusion is that a promising class of solutions exists that has never been tried.

 

2010 - Accelerating the Evolution of Common Property Rights

This paper PDF is about half done but on hold. Here's the abstract:

The sustainability problem may be viewed as a case of institutional failure. There is no standard institution capable of sustainably managing the world’s common property, which is those natural resources people use (and too often abuse) in common. An illustration showing The Evolutionary Tree of Property Management Solutions is used to explain this failure. The paper argues that property management systems are historically evolving and that a new institution (called Common Property Rights) for managing common property sustainably is slowly spontaneously appearing. We conclude this evolution can be accelerated and would help greatly in solving the sustainability problem.