Model Drift

Model drift is the second step in the Kuhn Cycle. (Here model means a model of explaination and prediction, or a set of decision making rules, such as the democratic model.) Model Drift occurs when situations appear a model cannot handle, and it cannot be patched up to accommodate them. If the exceptions are relatively small, the model is still useful and Model Drift is said to have occurred. But if the exceptions accumulate and become major, and the model is now a hindrance to those using it, the Model Drift step is over and the next step, Model Crisis, has begun.

The model civilization is using to run itself can loosely be called free market democracy. While not all countries practice all that makes up this model, it is by and large the reigning model and is gaining in popularity. Signs of model drift are low voter turnout, control of elections by who has the most money, and the way markets are really not that free—they are constrained by tariffs, subsidies, special "most favored nation" treaties, and so on. An even more serious sign of model drift is the inability of a global alliance practicing the model to appear, so that the model would apply at the global level. The authority and responsibilities of the United Nations are so limited it is nowhere close to playing this role.

But the most serious sign of model drift is inability to handle the global environmental sustainability problem. If fact, after over 30 years of being totally unable to solve the problem, this drift has become so large that it is obvious that the model is broken, and now in crisis.

How bad this crisis is may be seen by the fact that, if a new model that works is not found very soon, Homo sapiens will suffer the same catastrophic fate that has befallen all previous civilizations that overshot their environmental limits. It is not unreasonable to expect something in the ballpark of a 75% drop in population and a similar drop in industrial output per capita, which is what happened to the inhabitants of Easter Island from about 1600 to 1850, after deforestation occurred.